Mutuel field favored in Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The mutuel field, undefeated Algorithms and Union Rags are listed as the three favorites for the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager for the 2012 Run for the Roses.

The pool is comprised of 23 individual three-year-olds plus the mutuel field. Wagering for the Future Pool begins Friday at noon (et) and concludes Sunday at 6 p.m. (et).

As has been the custom the mutuel field is the early favorite at 8-5. The mutuel field includes all three-year-olds not listed in the pool.

Holy Bull Stakes winner Algorithms is the top individual three-year-old at 8-1. The colt upset 2011 champion two-year-old Hansen in the Holy Bull last month.

Union Rags is at 10-1. The colt was undefeated heading into last November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He finished second, a head behind Hansen. Union Rags is expected to make his 2012 debut at Gulfstream Park in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 26.

Hansen is 12-1 in the opening odds.

"The mutuel field has been a solid favorite in every opening pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and, given the loss by two-year-old champion Hansen in his first start as a three-year-old, there is every reason to think the 'all others' bet will be a strong-to-heavy favorite in what appears to be a wide-open crop of Kentucky Derby candidates," said track handicapper Mike Battaglia. "The 'now' horse is Algorithms, who is unbeaten, comes from the Pletcher barn, has a strong pedigree and easily handled the reigning two-year- old champ in the Holy Bull. The speed figures assigned to that win were impressive, so you can expect a lot of bettors to move in his direction. But every pool has interesting Derby prospects at attractive odds, and we should remember that last year's Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, did not even appear as an individual wagering interest until Pool 3. So much can happen on the road to the Kentucky Derby."

Here is the complete list of the 24 betting interests for the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Number Wagering Interest Morning line odds Final odds:

1. Algorithms 8-1

2. Alpha 20-1

3. Battle Hardened 30-1

4. Creative Cause 20-1

5. Discreet Dancer 15-1

6. Dullahan 15-1

7. El Padrino 20-1

8. Empire Way 50-1

9. Ever So Lucky 20-1

10. Fed Biz 20-1

11. Gemologist 20-1

12. Hansen 12-1

13. I'll Have Another 20-1

14. Junebugred 50-1

15. Liaison 20-1

16. Longview Drive 50-1

17. Midnight Transfer 50-1

18. Mr. Bowling 50-1

19. Out of Bounds 20-1

20. Rousing Sermon 30-1

21. Sabercat 30-1

22. Take Charge Indy 30-1

23. Union Rags 10-1

24. All Other 3YOs (field) 8-5

The remaining two Future Wagers will be held March 2-4 and March 30-April 1.

The 138th Kentucky Derby will be conducted on Saturday, May 5 at Churchill Downs.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.